Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the crisis triggered by the presentation of a new 28-article proposal for ending the war appeared – briefly – to have been stabilised. A Washington representative spoke of "notable headway" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its retaliation: another massive barrage of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Negotiation and Warfare
The sequence of conflicting incidents captured the grim essence of the outgoing year. By day, political struggles are conducted: hopeful statements are delivered from different nations. Significant resources is allocated on containing specific proposals. By night, Russian leadership clearly shows the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the key method for achieving "settlement".
Nighttime Reality
As Russia's attack developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's defenselessness was exposed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor projectile deployments from across the border, a capacity enabled by current data. From observation points, military aircraft that had been dispatched to engage hostile cruise missiles streaked across the sky – modern combat jets supplied to Ukraine by Western partners.
Moments later, Kyiv's air-defence systems thundered: multiple launches deployed against a incoming threat. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, presumably delivered by partner states. Every deployment creates sudden vibrations, causing tremors. The brief panic quickly becomes sober acceptance: maybe the approaching threat won't hit its mark this time, protecting urban areas from catastrophe and additional electricity failures.
Ongoing Risks
Not long after, a automatic firearm engaged a aerial vehicle somewhere nearby, part of a defensive team – almost certainly Western-made equipment. Sadly, the bullets missed the enemy aircraft – it pressed on overhead toward its destination.
Periodically, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the daybreak reports: seven people killed, damage and heating outages in multiple buildings as a result of the evening attack. As always, everyone still maintained normal activities – living the war. But those full day illustrated Ukraine's essential dependence on Western support – a reliance that regional partners are evidently unprepared to fill in the short term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The comprehensive proposal from Washington sparked intense emotion, controversy and deep concern – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after previous diplomatic encounters and multilateral gatherings.
Every new approach from American administration follows the consistent cycle: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, effectively counters. They contain the crisis but never actually win the battle. This pattern will, certainly, continue.
Political Considerations
It is easy to blame specific actors of repeatedly advocating Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the whole story. US administration operates on a premise well known to experienced diplomats: you cannot secure via talks what you have failed to defend militarily. The American government assumes that it is impossible to force Russia to abandon the territory that it already controls in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The problem is that while recognising this factual reality, US leadership does minimal to deter Moscow, through diplomacy or military means, from believing that the status quo will not shift further in its favour in the coming year.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, the Kremlin is convinced that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its supporters are approaching exhaustion. Their reason to accept conditions that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is virtually nonexistent. There may be multiple initiatives to achieve ceasefire, but they will persist as long as Russia's leadership remains highly assured in the result.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still hold out, slowly losing lives and land but averting a complete military breakdown until conditions improve in its advantage.
Present Conditions
Objectively, there are no actual prerequisites for a ceasefire. Now, subjective factors are becoming relevant: personal goals to negotiate peace and secure international recognition, and Ukrainian leadership's double obstacles – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the country's interests against any proposal Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their priority does not shift toward internal issues. And although their mission will now be much harder after current events, it remains quite doubtful that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These opposing factors are guiding negotiations.
Assessment and Future
It took a only one week to kill the 28 points of the most recent proposal. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by American leadership, opposition by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with calming attempts of representatives, and finally, current information leaks, all achieved their purpose.
While new initiatives based on established approaches are approaching, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off negotiation assaults from Washington that are based on Russian demands and demonstrate specific hesitation to modify developments, if they maintain solidarity and enhance their military capacity at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the coming months, largely rely on sustained allied backing.
