A decade after the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that split the country and triggered turmoil, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."
New Title Aims to Stir Debate
The duo have examined the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is imminent, and a group called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has obscured the lack of serious debate, said McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has occurred in scholarly circles but very few elected officials or campaigners are willing to participate with the basics. For instance, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, no writer supports unification or the existing arrangement. They writes two pieces that aim for neutrality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case against, gathering economic and societal figures, past examples and constitutional models.
Arguments range over national emblems, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and provoke conversation.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist good arguments on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they prefer unity but oppose paying higher taxes or introducing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government should determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist considers a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a bad or a feckless government minister who states: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, legitimate arguments, he stated. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and somebody will in the end lose but both parties has possesses important lessons to gain from the opposing positions."
Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster should participate in the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish issue."
